https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/is-chinese-power-about-to-peak?utm_campaign=a.the-economist-this-week&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20230511&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-1&etear=nl_weekly_1&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-this-week&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/11/2023&utm_id=1593947
Zanny Minton Beddoes
Editor-in-chief |
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I’ve long wanted us to produce a definitive assessment of the debate among China watchers about “Peak China”—the idea that a slowing economy, a shrinking population and other challenges mean that the country’s relative power is topping out. One view is that a China in decline would, paradoxically, become more dangerous. “Beijing is a revisionist power that wants to reorder the world, but its time to do so is already running out,” wrote Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, two American political scientists, in a book published last year.
In a special briefing we look at several aspects of this debate, from China’s growing military power to Xi Jinping’s fears of the Communist Party’s collapse. And we dive into the question of whether and when the size of China’s economy would surpass America's at market exchange rates. Once thought inevitable, now there is some doubt. If China’s economy does overtake America’s, it will not be by much. Mr Xi is unpredictable but his country’s long-run economic prospect is neither triumph nor disaster. That could make the world safer. |
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