1.28 billion
As of early 2025, China’s official population stands at approximately 1.408 billion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics . However, some researchers and analysts question the accuracy of this figure, suggesting that the actual population may be significantly lower.
Alternative Estimates and Concerns
- Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has been a prominent voice challenging China’s official population data. He estimates that China’s population in 2020 was around 1.28 billion, about 130 million fewer than the official count .
- Yi argues that China’s fertility rates have been overestimated and that the country may have already been overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation as early as 2017 .
- A Newsweek article also highlights claims that China has been over-reporting its population, with suggestions that the actual number could be over 100 million fewer than officially stated .
Factors Contributing to Discrepancies
Several factors may contribute to the discrepancies between official figures and alternative estimates:
- Data Manipulation: There are concerns that local officials may inflate population figures to meet political targets or secure more resources.
- Underreporting of Deaths: Some deaths, especially in rural areas, may go unreported, leading to an overestimation of the living population.
- Migration and Urbanization: The massive internal migration and urbanization in China can complicate accurate population tracking, with some individuals not officially registered in their place of residence.
Conclusion
While China’s official population is reported to be around 1.408 billion, alternative analyses suggest that the actual number could be significantly lower, potentially around 1.28 billion. These discrepancies underscore the challenges in obtaining accurate demographic data and the importance of transparency in statistical reporting.