https://media.defense.gov/2025/Apr/29/2003700710/-1/-1/1/FEATURE%20-%20MOORE%20DISCLAIMER.PDF
Abstract
Xi Jinping’s calculus on Taiwan is not guided by mere opportunism but by a structured assessment of strategic, political, and military realities—his metaphorical “dashboard.” This article dissects 13 key indicators shaping Beijing’s decision on whether and when to invade Taiwan, alongside four enduring factors reinforcing China’s long- term objective to acquire Taiwan. The analysis finds that 11 of the 13 indicators favor near- term action, suggesting a closing window of opportunity that could drive Xi toward a military solution sooner rather than later. While China’s military readiness remains a consideration, the dynamics of US commitments, Taiwan’s shifting identity, and China’s economic and demographic pressures weigh heavily on the timeline. Coupled with Xi’s personal ambitions and his directive to the PLA to be ready for action by 2027, the balance tilts toward military escalation. Ignoring these hard truths invites peril; understanding them is imperative for policymakers navigating what may be the most volatile flashpoint in US foreign policy in the coming few years.