https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7923913/Shanghai-Disney-closed-Saturday-help-prevent-spread-virus.html (2020-1-24)
A report produced by researchers from Lancaster University in England, the University of Florida and the University of Glasgow, estimated that only one in 20 coronavirus cases are being diagnosed.
Dr Jonathan Read, a biostatistics researcher at Lancaster, wrote with colleagues: 'If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.
'In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396).'
Dr Read told MailOnline: 'The estimate we came back with was that one in 20 people becoming infected are getting detected and confirmed as cases. There is potentially a lot of people not recognised.
'This could be for a number of reasons. One that springs to mind the most, common with respiratory and flu-like viruses, is a lot of people will get sick and never seek medical help. Unless you present yourself to a doctor or a hospital you won’t get counted.'
