see also
https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1 (2020-1-24)
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-pandemic-simulation-run-3-months-ago-predicts-65-million-people-could-die (2020-1-24)
But according to one simulation run less than three months ago, things could get much, much worse. Less than three months ago, Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, had run a simulation of a global pandemic involving the exact same type of virus, according to Business Insider.
His simulation predicted that 65 million people could die "within 18 months".
He commented:
“I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus.”
As of now, the outbreak is not a pandemic, but it has been reported in eight different countries. Toner's simulation said that nearly "every country in the world" would have the virus after six months.
He commented:
“We don’t yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don’t know to what extent. An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that’s reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting.”
