https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
The Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and Western history. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 21 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans around 85 years, although some saecula have lasted longer). The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.[citation needed]
Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their book Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991), which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584.[1]In their book The Fourth Turning (1997), the authors expanded the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras[2] to describe the history of the United States, including the Thirteen Colonies and their British antecedents. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries.[3]
What’s William Strauss and Neil Howe’s the fourth turning? (ChatGPT, 2024-12-21)
William Strauss and Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning is a theory of cyclical generational patterns in history, presented in their 1997 book of the same name. The theory posits that historical events unfold in recurring cycles, called saecula, approximately 80-100 years long, each consisting of four “turnings.” Each turning lasts about 20-25 years and corresponds to a generational archetype and societal mood. Here’s an overview:
The Four Turnings
1. The First Turning: The High
• Period: Following a major crisis.
• Characteristics: A time of societal stability and order, with strong institutions and a collective sense of purpose. Individualism is de-emphasized, and social cohesion is emphasized.
• Example: Post-World War II era (1946–1964).
2. The Second Turning: The Awakening
• Period: A time of spiritual upheaval and questioning.
• Characteristics: Society begins to challenge established institutions and norms. This era is marked by cultural renewal and a desire for personal and spiritual liberation.
• Example: The 1960s–1980s countercultural movements.
3. The Third Turning: The Unraveling
• Period: Institutions weaken, and individualism grows.
• Characteristics: Society becomes fragmented, distrust of authority rises, and cultural conflicts intensify. There is a general sense of instability.
• Example: The 1980s–2000s era of polarization and institutional decline.
4. The Fourth Turning: The Crisis
• Period: A time of major upheaval.
• Characteristics: Institutions are torn down and rebuilt, often through conflict, war, or revolution. This turning resolves the societal tensions that accumulated in the previous phases and paves the way for a new High.
• Example: The Great Depression and World War II (1929–1946).
Generational Archetypes
Each turning is shaped by four generational archetypes, which repeat in sequence:
1. Prophet (Idealist): Born after a crisis, they grow up during a High and come of age during an Awakening (e.g., Baby Boomers).
2. Nomad (Reactive): Born during an Awakening, they grow up during an Unraveling and come of age during a Crisis (e.g., Generation X).
3. Hero (Civic): Born during an Unraveling, they grow up during a Crisis and come of age during a High (e.g., Millennials).
4. Artist (Adaptive): Born during a Crisis, they grow up during a High and come of age during an Awakening (e.g., Generation Z).
Key Ideas
• Historical Recurrence: Society progresses through cycles of growth, decay, and renewal, driven by generational dynamics.
• Intergenerational Tension: Each generation responds to the conditions of its upbringing and shapes the trajectory of the cycle.
• Present and Future: As of the book’s publication, the authors predicted that the United States was entering a Fourth Turning, characterized by economic, political, and social crises.
Criticism and Impact
• Criticism: Critics argue the theory oversimplifies complex historical events and imposes a rigid structure on history. It has also been criticized for being overly deterministic.
• Impact: Despite criticism, The Fourth Turning has influenced political discourse and policy debates, and it gained renewed attention in the 21st century during periods of social and political turmoil.
The theory invites reflection on history’s patterns and how societies might prepare for and navigate transformative periods.
William Strauss (1947-2007)
- Chance and Circumstance (1978)
- Reconciliation After Vietnam (1978)
- Generations (1991)
- Fools on the Hill (1992)
- 13th-GEN (1993)
- The Fourth Turning (1997)
- Millennials Rising (2000)
- Sixteen Scandals (2002)
- Millennials Go To College (2003, 2007)
- Millennials and the Pop Culture (2006)
- Millennials and K-12 Schools (2008)
Neil Howe (b 1951)
- On Borrowed Time (1988)
- Generations (1991)
- 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail? (1993)
- The Fourth Turning (1997)
- Global Aging: The Challenge of the Next Millennium (1999)
- Millennials Rising (2000)
- The 2003 Aging Vulnerability Index (2003)
- Millennials Go To College (2003, 2007)
- The Graying of the Middle Kingdom (2004)
- Millennials and the Pop Culture (2005)
- Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods (2006)
- Millennials and K-12 Schools (2008)
- The Graying of the Great Powers (2008)
- Millennials in the Workplace (2010)
- The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End (2023)[13]
