Thank you for clarifying the correct timeline. The series of events you outlined highlights the United States’ inconsistent participation in the Paris Agreement, with Donald Trump’s decisions to withdraw in both 2017 and 2025 creating opportunities for the CCP to advance its global ambitions in new energy vehicles (NEVs). Here’s an analysis based on the updated timeline:
How the CCP Exploited U.S. Withdrawal (2017–2025)
1. Filling the Leadership Void
• 2017 Withdrawal (June 1, 2017):
• When Trump announced the first withdrawal, China seized the opportunity to present itself as a global leader in climate change mitigation. Beijing leveraged this position to expand its influence in global green energy markets, including NEVs, batteries, and renewable energy technologies.
• Result: China’s NEV industry accelerated development with government support, positioning itself to dominate markets aligned with the Paris Agreement, such as the EU and emerging economies.
• 2025 Withdrawal (January 20, 2025):
• Trump’s renewed withdrawal undermines global efforts to align climate policies and incentivizes other nations to depend more on Chinese green technologies.
• Result: The CCP solidifies its status as the leading exporter of affordable NEVs and green tech.
2. Strategic Subsidies and Global Dumping
• Massive Subsidies (2017–2025):
• After the 2017 withdrawal, the CCP ramped up subsidies for its NEV industry, enabling Chinese automakers to undercut international competitors in cost-sensitive markets.
• By 2025, these subsidies allowed Chinese firms to dominate global NEV exports, particularly to Europe and Asia.
• Example: BYD and other Chinese automakers flooded markets with affordable vehicles, often seen as “dumping” due to state-backed pricing advantages.
• Economic Disruption in Competitor Nations:
• The absence of strong U.S. support for domestic clean energy innovation (post-2017 withdrawal) reduced competition, making Chinese NEVs more attractive internationally.
3. Technological and Supply Chain Domination
• Battery Production Leadership:
• Between 2017 and 2025, China focused on controlling the entire NEV supply chain, particularly lithium battery production. By 2025, China dominated over 70% of the global lithium-ion battery market.
• Impact: Nations still committed to the Paris Agreement became dependent on Chinese technologies, eroding U.S. and European industrial competitiveness.
• Lack of U.S. Response:
• The absence of coordinated U.S. climate and industrial policies under Trump weakened alternative supply chains, allowing China to expand its influence over rare earth minerals and NEV production.
4. Exploiting the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Gap
• U.S. Funding Cuts Post-2017:
• Trump’s cessation of U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) disrupted climate finance for developing nations, which would have supported their transition to clean energy.
• China’s Response: Beijing stepped in, offering NEVs and green infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This strengthened China’s economic ties with developing nations while promoting Chinese-made NEVs globally.
5. Diplomatic and Soft Power Gains
• Paris Agreement Advocacy:
• China actively championed the Paris Agreement post-2017, contrasting itself with U.S. withdrawal. This narrative enhanced China’s image as a reliable partner in global climate governance.
• Outcome: European and other nations became more willing to import Chinese NEVs, aligning their climate goals with Beijing’s industrial policies.
Impact of U.S. Re-Entry (2021–2025)
• Joe Biden’s Re-Entry in 2021:
• Biden’s rejoining of the Paris Agreement partially countered China’s narrative and reinvigorated U.S. efforts to invest in clean energy.
• However, during the four-year absence (2017–2021), China had already entrenched itself as a dominant force in NEVs and green tech.
• 2025 Withdrawal by Trump:
• The second withdrawal undermines global climate unity, reinforces China’s leadership role, and weakens U.S. credibility.
• Result: The CCP’s NEV industry is well-positioned to expand further with minimal resistance, given reduced U.S. policy coherence.
Conclusion
From 2017 to 2025, Trump’s withdrawal decisions created a policy vacuum that the CCP exploited to:
1. Position itself as a global leader in green technology and climate action.
2. Dominate the NEV market through subsidies and aggressive exports.
3. Establish supply chain and market dependencies on Chinese technology.
The U.S.‘s inconsistent climate policies inadvertently strengthened China’s NEV ambitions, facilitating global market dominance and enhancing China’s economic and geopolitical leverage.
