The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would need to undertake extensive preparations—military, economic, political, and psychological—before initiating an invasion of Taiwan. Below are key areas of preparation:
1. Military Preparations
• Amphibious and Air Assault Capabilities: Taiwan’s geography, with its rugged coastline and mountainous interior, requires highly developed amphibious assault capabilities and sufficient airlift capacities.
• Naval Dominance: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would need to establish maritime superiority in the Taiwan Strait to protect troop movements and prevent external intervention.
• Air Superiority: Neutralizing Taiwan’s air defenses and achieving air superiority is critical. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) must target airbases, radar installations, and missile systems.
• Missile Strikes: Precision strikes on critical infrastructure, including command centers, missile sites, and communications hubs, would be necessary.
• Cyber Warfare: Disabling Taiwan’s infrastructure, military networks, and communications through cyberattacks.
• Logistics and Supply Chains: Sustained operations across the Taiwan Strait would require reliable logistics for fuel, ammunition, medical supplies, and reinforcements.
2. Political and Diplomatic Preparations
• Regional Neutralization: The CCP must mitigate potential responses from nearby countries, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Diplomatic or economic pressure could be used to deter their intervention.
• Dividing Allies: Efforts to weaken the U.S.-Taiwan alliance and discourage American intervention would be essential. This could involve offering concessions or threats to the U.S. and its allies.
• Legal and Propaganda Justification: The CCP would need to build a narrative domestically and internationally to justify the invasion. Framing the attack as a “reunification” effort or a response to a “provocation” would be key.
• United Nations and Global Pressure: The CCP may try to preemptively neutralize global sanctions or resolutions by lobbying sympathetic countries or using veto power in the UN Security Council.
3. Economic Preparations
• Sanction Resilience: Anticipating international sanctions, the CCP must ensure domestic economic resilience, stockpile resources, and reduce reliance on imports.
• Energy Security: Diversifying energy supplies and building reserves to withstand potential disruptions in trade routes or embargoes.
• Currency and Financial Systems: Protecting the Chinese yuan and domestic financial systems from external shocks.
4. Psychological Operations
• Taiwan’s Morale: Conduct disinformation campaigns to sow fear, uncertainty, and division among Taiwan’s population and government officials.
• International Perceptions: Influence global media and public opinion to discourage strong international condemnation.
• Domestic Support: Strengthen internal nationalism and suppress dissent to maintain unity and morale within China.
5. Domestic Stability
• Suppressing Internal Dissent: The CCP must ensure domestic stability, as prolonged war or economic hardship could lead to unrest.
• Contingency Planning: Preparing to deal with protests, ethnic tensions, or uprisings in other regions during the conflict.
6. Long-Term Occupation Plans
• Control Over Taiwan: The CCP would need plans for occupying Taiwan post-invasion, addressing potential resistance movements, maintaining law and order, and integrating Taiwan into its political system.
• Economic Integration: Managing Taiwan’s economy and resources under CCP control.
Challenges
Even with extensive preparations, an invasion would face numerous risks, including:
• Unpredictable U.S. and allied responses.
• Taiwan’s advanced defensive capabilities.
• Economic devastation from global sanctions.
• The potential for long-term insurgency within Taiwan.
A misstep in these preparations could jeopardize the CCP’s broader political and military objectives, making an invasion a highly complex and risky endeavor.
