https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b650jwIVpaA
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf (2020-2-10)
Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
Ilaria Dorigatti+
, Lucy Okell+
, Anne Cori, Natsuko Imai , Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri,
Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe , Arran Hamlet, Wes
Hinsley, Nan Hong , Min Kwun, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van Elsland, Erik
Volz, Haowei Wang, Raymond Wang, Caroline Walters , Xiaoyue Xi, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil
Ferguson*
. With support from other volunteers from the MRC Centre.
1
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
J-IDEA
Imperial College London
*Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
Summary
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases
detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases
detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-
5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.
Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from
testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR
from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to
obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately
1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates
does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual
countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of
differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should
be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in
mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals
from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.
