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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

M (FJU 2019) - 星火 (雜誌)

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%9F%E7%81%AB_(%E9%9B%9C%E8%AA%8C)

起因

1959－1961年，中華人民共和國繼「大躍進」和人民公社化運動後，出現了大饑荒，全國範圍內死亡人數逾3000萬，當時政府宣傳說是由於「趕上三年災害」（實際上不是天災而是人禍）、「蘇聯政府又背信棄義地撕毀兩國經濟技術合作協議」等。蘭州大學被下放到農村進行勞動改造的部分右派學生，目睹了甘肅省武山、天水兩縣的農村饑荒的慘烈情況，1960年初，歷史系學生張春元發起創辦《星火》雜誌，他們希望通過《星火》雜誌，傳播思想、喚醒社會的良知。

行動

學生們湊錢買了油印機，自己刻蠟版，印成了首期《星火》，三十多頁，其中發表了林昭的長詩《普羅米修斯受難的一日》。該期有篇文章，稱讚彭德懷為民請命，並表達了對毛澤東的不滿。在《當前的形勢和我們的任務》一文中則揭露了當時社會的慘狀，希望由共產黨內部發起革命。他們計劃將雜誌寄給各省市的領導人，以期糾正錯誤。

結局

但首期《星火》還沒有寄出，第二期尚在編輯中，1960年9月30日，在武山、天水的這些學生被捕，同時被捕的還有數十名了解並支持他們的當地農民。

· 張春元被判無期徒刑；

· 中共武山縣委副書記杜映華因為與這些學生有過交流，被判刑五年，刑滿後，卻不得回社會，留在監獄「就業」當工人；1970年與張春元同案處決。^[1]

· 中文系女學生譚蟬雪，判十五年；

· 化學系講師胡曉愚，判十五年；

· 物理系學生何之明，判十五年；

· 物理系學生苗新久，判二十年；

· 物理系學生顧雁，判十年以上；^[2]

· 物理系學生徐誠，判十年以上；

· 中文系學生楊賢勇，判十年；

· 生物系學生陳德根，判七年；

· 化學系學生向承鑒，判十八年；

· 當地四十多歲的農民劉武雄，判十二年。

1961年8月10日，張春元越獄，9月6日再次被捕。

1968年4月29日，林昭被槍決。

1970年3月，張春元和杜映華因「在監內進行第二次反革命活動」（遞紙條），兩人被處決於蘭州。^[1]

1978年，中共中央發布五十五號文件，《星火》案所涉及的蘭州大學其他七名案犯右派身分得到改正。1981年4月，天水中院宣告張春元、向承鑒無罪。

北京反击美国一大二小三张王牌，禁止对美出口孟子莊子老子

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mv43Kj-MT8

M (FJU 2019) - 封閉的跟開放的系統

1. 話語系統的本質是封閉的

2. 封閉的原因是它預設了所有可能的現象

3. 都已見過都已慮及都可解釋

4. 因此它最不喜歡的就是意外

5. 因為意外破壞了它原本的窗明几淨一塵不染

6. 所以碰到意外它的反應就是把意外硬塞進去原本的系統

7. 或頂多當成特例比如說DSM的NOS (Not Otherwise Specified)

8. 而不是質疑原本信以為真為完美的系統

9. 上述這個封閉性的驅力說明了系統的惰性

10. 也說明了歷史的輪迴

11. 上述的意外是關鍵

12. Abduction 就是碰到意外的時候發生的

13. Peirce defines abduction as follows in Baldwin’s Dictionary:

Upon finding himself confronted with a phenomenon unlike what he would have expected under the circumstances, he looks over its features and notices some remarkable character or relation among them, which he at once recognizes as being characteristic of some conception with which the mind is already stored, so that a theory is suggested which would explain (this is, render necessary) that which is surprising in the phenomena. (2:427)

Thus, when trying to develop the orbit of Mars for the new Copernican system while holding on to the common preconception that heavenly bodies move in perfect circles, Kepler began with the observation that there are slight eccentricities in the orbit of Mars (surprising fact B). Next he looked for possible causes that would explain these eccentricities. This led him to a hypothetical cause (suspected fact A), which subsequent research either denied or confirmed. If the former, it caused him to look for alternatives to suspected fact A that could also explain surprising fact B.

Now, how do we find these alternatives? For Peirce it comes down in the end to educated guesses.

This causes some to argue that abduction is not really a mode of inference.

However, something more can be said about these guesses: they typically must take into account as many of the relevant facts as possible; our past experience and other beliefs make some of them more likely than others; each alternative comes with its own presuppositions and implications; some alternatives are far easier to confirm or deny than others; and so on.

Thus, in Kepler’s case, the first guess he should consider is that there are mistakes in the calculations: it’s not unlikely, it’s least invasive in terms of requiring modifications to existing theory or having to dismiss past observations, and it’s relatively easy to check. If no mistakes are found, as happened in Kepler’s case, considerations like the ones listed above, which are largely considerations from the economy of research, will suggest where we should look next.

In contemporary literature, abduction is sometimes referred to as “inference to the best explanation.” This phrase is not used by Peirce and is best avoided because there are several problems with it. Most importantly, this phrase is suited not only for abduction, but also, and perhaps even more so, for induction.

In its most general form abduction can be captured as follows:

Some surprising fact B is observed,
If A were true, B would be explicable as a matter of course;
Hence, there is reason to suspect that A is true.

The three types of reasoning outlined above are ideal types, and Peirce considers them the three most basic types of reasoning.

Typically, our reasoning involves combinations of them. A particularly powerful combination—one that is characteristic of much scientific reasoning—combines abduction first with deduction and then with induction.

What sets the train of reasoning in motion, Peirce argues, is some surprising phenomenon that sufficiently compels us to look for an explanation.

In short, abduction furnishes us with explanatory hypotheses, or theories, deduction draws out their logical implications, and induction verifies (or falsifies) these implications, and by doing so verifies (or falsifies) the hypothesis.

de Waal, Cornelis. Peirce: A Guide for the Perplexed (Guides for the Perplexed) (p. 64-66). Bloomsbury Publishing. 2017, Kindle edition.

Now, 我不確定, Peirce上述, 是說明自然科學的邏輯, 還是社會科學或人文學科的邏輯?

前者的研究可以主客體兩分控制變相排除誤差(bias) 就一個自給自足的邏輯系統而言大家都很高興我們知道我們在幹甚麼而且不管做甚麼一定會有結果

後者的探討無法主客體判然兩分無法完美控制變相排除誤差研究者本身的主體性的介入不可避免而且人的現象和經驗拒絕被定格往往無法鎖定在明確的範圍內 deduction和induction都有巨大瑕疵這時abduction成為我們唯一擁有的極其不完美的邏輯工具

意思是說用極其不完美的abduction 加上極其不完美的deduction 以至極其不完美的induction 我們極其不完美的面對極其不完美的人的現象和經驗大家都很垂頭喪氣我們不知道我們在幹甚麼但是知道不管做甚麼一定不會有結果

這時你必須想起西西弗斯

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Monday, May 13, 2019

人民币汇率又一次冲击7.0，不换美元你还在等什么？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlKMC90BiNE

厚街鞋业总部基地，二楼三楼全部空荡荡

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejCnm1e7TYc

秦伟平反驳金灿荣

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFPw4QCvgYw

北京提前重启芯片补贴

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5zDdILPJt4

周周侃侃侃侃侃侃侃

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRWfJkU3gtE

M (FJU 2019) - 精神分析的抉擇

一為科學傳統一為人文傳統前者是工具理性後者認為工具理性是最大的瘋狂或人生無癮則不存在前者是生活的現實後者是生命的原鄉意思是說前者是拿來過日子的後者則是過完正確的一生後才知畢竟不值佛洛伊德以為前者終將駕馭後者我們清醒的時候知道這只不過是以為

岁月静好内地乱象

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQ005-sTm90

264

5/13, 6:13 AM, sun above the hill; duty; 8:47 AM, one ER, 86 y/m, sent from nursing home, agitation, 10:20 AM, dementia with BPSD; 5:00 PM, two consults, CM; 9:40 PM, ER one, 58 y/m, homeless, drunken, self-destructive, fresh case, CM. 5/18, 10:00 PM, one ER, pregnant 3 m, no adm; 5/19, 5:20 PM, H3 one epigastric distress, ulsafe st & bid; 8:30 PM, H2 one suffocation, s/p heimlich, under obs; 9:20 PM, one ER, adm;

夜幕降临昏暗的东莞小巷

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lc5dAJ2VIqw

Sunday, May 12, 2019

深圳福永工廠

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfymaWIE4Og

香港首现非洲猪瘟

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUGdKfnm1ws (8:45)

1985-2002

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC9vmgI_fDI&t=29s

my name is three three - 算算看幾個蛋

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG8EufgDyTk

广东东莞日薪90的工厂，能招到人吗

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffz__uSahqg

北京房租不升反降！釋放了什麼信號？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxvjLgRyzLI

国内中药注射液

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6SFn7338NvtYXaD29o2xrA/community?lb=UgzDK9gcYPELdljox1l4AaABCQ

租售同权VS多校划片，谁能够终结中国的学区房？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZUuVgOu8rs

加税后，北京首要“稳预期”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lHDOLeYDz0

想起那個和談

https://tw.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20081101000015KK09790

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8C%97%E5%B9%B3%E5%92%8C%E8%B0%88

Oxford Handbook of Pain Management (Peter Brook, Tony Pickering, Jayne Connell, OUP, 2011)

The Oxford Handbook of Pain Management is the essential resource for all clinicians involved in the management of pain. Organised into sections dealing with basic principles of treatment, therapeutic interventions, including non-medical management of pain, and specific clinical situations, the Handbook emphasises the multimodal treatment options available for patients with pain conditions and brings them together to provide a truly biopsychosocial approach to management. Covering both chronic and acute pain, it will help the practitioner to choose the right treatment for the right patient at the right time. (amazon)

Applications of Good Psychiatric Management for Borderline Personality Disorder: A Practical Guide (ed. Lois W. Choi-kain, John G. Gunderson, APPI, 2019-4-22)

Inspired by the 2014 handbook on Good Psychiatric Management (GPM), Applications of Good Psychiatric Management for Borderline Personality Disorder: A Practical Guide distills the latest scientific research on borderline personality disorder (BPD) into a useful guide for any generalist practitioner who wants a basic skill set to effectively manage patients with BPD. Written in a down-to-earth style, this book serves as a practical road map for clinicians from all corners of the clinical universe: the primary care provider, the emergency room doctor, the social worker, the psychopharmacologist, the psychotherapy supervisor, the dialectical behavior therapy specialist, and the generalist in an outpatient clinic, as well as other practitioners. Emphasizing GPM's efficacy and arguing for its relevance and utility across diverse patient populations, clinical settings, and practitioner roles, the volume provides helpful how-to advice and wisdom for managing patient care. The book is not about lengthy intensive interventions, it is about management strategies (i.e., calming, encouraging, advising) to enable patients with BPD to pursue productive lives.

A case-based text that any health professional, no matter their level, will find easy to use, Applications of Good Psychiatric Management for Borderline Personality Disorder: A Practical Guide is accessible, actionable, and indispensable. (amazon)

夏业良：中美贸易谈判破裂谁伤得更深川普要再造中国？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ8XFiavpXY

最後一個星期天

一百零八小時等於四天半

接下來十一天入監服刑

等於二百六十四小時

如果一百零八小時就會見鬼

二百六十四小時會見到甚麼

夢參和尚被勞改三十三年

等於 33 × 365 × 24 = 289080小時

見到頭頂焚燒的鐵輪

以上說明存在治療的可能性

黄奇帆：中国如果实施零关税、零壁垒、零补贴，等于第二次“入世”

https://m.21jingji.com/article/20190509/herald/214d7dde7a2e401b2cb0c036689501bf.html?from=weibo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYL6DMPU5uU

人民日报钟声：中国不会屈服于任何极限施压 (2019-5-11)

https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2019-05-11/doc-ihvhiqax7949169.shtml

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M25-YFQos0

文本平衡性

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5fpcxC-s6E

财经全世界025期：中国高层重大失误导致经济大萧条，川普同时下两盘棋美国先全额征税

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpSri_D4yr0

Saturday, May 11, 2019

贸易战若全面开打，会如何影响中国经济？老百姓怎么办？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoFxPNA1ZFI

川普发狠扬言对所有中国商品征收关税，皆因习近平把“经贸谈判”升级为“政治谈判”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAEOsHtdgHc

一个月内中美贸易谈不成就对剩下的3250亿收关税

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI-In6JbqLE

武汉雅居乐业主维权事件凸显中国房地产行业乱象

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXjdBejRxnM

张洵陈小平：中国经济崩崩崩，习近平拖拖拖，百姓即将造重罪！

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rie0o53Jx30

川普加稅啟動對中國經濟影響有多深？匯市、股市、房市走向預測

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk5ijIHN_KM

Steps of the Individuation Process (Carl Jung)

https://www.carl-jung.net/individuation_steps.html

做人的常態是捉襟見肘縫縫補補遂草草一生交差了事這個幾乎註定是不良成品 (damaged goods) 的窩囊命運居然還有步驟

程兆熊（1906-2001）

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E7%A8%8B%E5%85%86%E7%86%8A/1448371

1959 大地边缘人物：禅门人物之风姿的领悟

1960 一个人的完成

1976 完人的生活与风姿

Hans Brinker, or The Silver Skates (full title: Hans Brinker; or, the Silver Skates: A Story of Life in Holland) (Mary Mapes Dodge, 1865)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Brinker,_or_The_Silver_Skates

The book is also notable for popularizing the story of the little Dutch boy who plugs a dike with his finger.

abductive reasoning

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abductive_reasoning

a form of logical inferencewhich starts with an observation or set of observations then seeks to find the simplest and most likely explanation for the observations. This process, unlike deductive reasoning, yields a plausible conclusion but does not positively verify it. Abductive conclusions are thus qualified as having a remnant of uncertainty or doubt, which is expressed in retreat terms such as "best available" or "most likely". One can understand abductive reasoning as inference to the best explanation,^[3] although not all uses of the terms abduction and inference to the best explanation are exactly equivalent.^[4]^[5]

Cf.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deductive_reasoning

Deductive reasoning ("top-down logic") 演绎推理 contrasts with inductive reasoning ("bottom-up logic") 归纳推理 in the following way; in deductive reasoning, a conclusion is reached reductively by applying general rules which hold over the entirety of a closed domain of discourse, narrowing the range under consideration until only the conclusion(s) is left. In inductive reasoning, the conclusion is reached by generalizing or extrapolating from specific cases to general rules, i.e., there is epistemic uncertainty. However, the inductive reasoning mentioned here is not the same as induction used in mathematical proofs – mathematical induction is actually a form of deductive reasoning.

Deductive reasoning differs from abductive reasoning by the direction of the reasoning relative to the conditionals. Deductive reasoning goes in the same direction as that of the conditionals, whereas abductive reasoning goes in the opposite direction to that of the conditionals.

Peirce on Abduction

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/peirce.html