Tuesday, October 9, 2018

一旦房子价格暴跌 人们会面对怎样的场景?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWRW5f4uc1Q

http://www.aboluowang.com/2018/1007/1185472.html


凡事都会有涨有跌,房价也是一样。房价波动可以分为高涨,转折,下跌(甚至暴跌)三个阶段。
房价经过迅速上涨后,高房价把真正消费者排斥在房地产市场之外,而只靠投机资金支撑时,房地产经济由盛转衰,房地产市场在交易价格和交易数量两个方面都出现萎缩。房价便进人了持续下跌阶段。主要特征是:
1.房价暴跌,将引起一系列连锁反应。
先是开发商大量破产,除了拖欠银行、建材供应商外,施工方也会被大量拖欠工程款其次是房地产相关的产业,钢铁、水泥、玻璃、铝业、家俱等相关行业陷入低迷,继而进一步影响各类行业。
服务业方面,与房产有关的各类中介、金融、法律,还有从事钻探、设计、招投标代理等行业也大受影响。
房地产链条长,房价暴跌产生的连锁反应。破产或经营陷入困境的企业越来越多,企业员工失业增多,家庭财富大幅缩,容易产生就业问题。
2.房价跌幅触目惊心,个别房价低于建筑价格,房地产泡沫完全破灭。
如在1992年,美国物业成交价一般只有原价的1/4甚至更低。
3.人们都有跟风的行为,都是买涨不买跌,如果房价暴跌,房地产交易量就会锐减。
房地产空置率居高不下成为市场的普遍现象。例如日本1991年商厦出租量比上年同期减少40%。
4.房价暴跌,房地产行业就会出现大量的纠纷事件,房地产商破产现象更为普遍,甚至连一些实力雄厚的大型公司也在所难免。
例如1982年资产接近100亿港元、下属地产曾跻身为香港10大地产公司的佳宁财团被迫清盘。
5.房价暴跌,银行就会出现不良债权增加的现象,损失扩大。
房价下跌后,对于有贷款压力的购房者,是不会停止返还贷款的,会继续持有房产,认为房价肯定还会涨上去的,拆东墙补西墙的筹集资金,偿还贷款。
此时,房地产企业的楼房销量会下降,但是房地产企业还是持续所谓的捂盘,等待下一轮的价格上涨房地产贷款风险增加,银行这时就会成为最大的房东,但是,通过处置抵押房地产收回贷款本息的可能性也在减小,从而成为不良债权。一部分不良债权必然形成实际损失。
6.房价暴跌,银行倒闭就会增加。
一方面,银行收益减少甚至出现亏损,另一方面,不良债权和损失的增加会降低金融机构的流动性,金融机构就会面临破产的危机。
7.房价暴跌,信用就会出现问题,信贷风险增大,银行就会紧缩该种贷款的规模或者尽量减少贷款的期限。
在存量方面,金融机构会千方百计争取提前收回贷款,贷款存量下降。当这种现象蔓延到整个金融体系后,严重的信贷收缩便会发生,整个金融体系将受到沉重打击。
8.房价暴跌,房地产市场就会走向萧条阶段。想要进入新一轮的复苏,一方面,依赖于前期房地产开发项目的消化程度;另一方面,也取决于宏观经济周期波动趋势。

川普拖中共打經濟殲滅戰 新共識正在全美興起 決定性反擊時刻來臨

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_M67GZl10wk

平度老兵维权第4天 局势紧张

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snY8y2I4VN0

中國經濟陷入十面埋伏 救市幅度超金融海嘯 外匯近紅線

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzeQM2TNGrY

魏京生百忙中速说国际刑警组织主席孟宏伟被消失的国际玩笑开大了

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2k8LamKGMY

平語近人

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zlv8cuc50Go

政局要变?习近平拒见美国国务卿,个人崇拜骤然大升温,开始公然学习“习近平语录”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qToH2Nontho

碧桂园多地降价引发业主打砸售楼处

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncRspWKNOdQ

平度退伍老兵开创低烈度武装维权模式,十一维权周说明全民共振可行

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T12H9YtUWBI

2:15 AM


深夜落雨一個印象待確認1981年的Gadamer-Derrida Debate其實沒有發生因為Derrida迴避了對話Gadamer是老實人應該是有備而去想對話的這說明了甚麼這說明了詮釋學像是打不死的內功高手動作不多耐心十足就動作片來說這是敗筆而解構像是蹦蹦跳跳的拳腳師傅十八般武藝虎虎生風耍得很好屬好看的動作片所以當年他們沒有辦法過招是正確的

一些片段


昨晚夜診我說關係學派兩三事片段記錄於此(一)其圈內有兩說一是成其為學派二是保留開放的狀態稱之為關係的傳統像一大傘可涵蓋各路人馬(二)關係學派借重Ferenczi甚深這說明了Ferenczi是佛洛伊德以降的重要分水嶺作者(三)但關係學派也借重了Ferenczi當年的過份的實驗這說明了關係學派的治療的溢越這裡指的是mutual analysis(四)關係學派基本上沒有被醫學化的二戰後的美國精神分析學會所限制他們被壓抑了四十年默默存在默默成長四十年磨一劍可以說明1983之後他們的創造力的勃發(五)而且他們的閱讀沒有界線(六)1983年Stephen Mitchell和Jay Greenberg的那本書是關係學派文藝復興的開始不要忘記他們書中羅列的前輩作者1983都已過世意思是說他們繼承了1940-1980的精神分析的發展的遺產包括自我心理學自體心理學客體關係理論(克萊茵學派中間學派依附理論)(七)他們有沒有從拉岡得到啟發這是一個好問題(八)昨晚我說他們是一群興奮的紐約客(九)關係學派等不等於互為主體理論似乎應該說關係學派包括互為主體理論(十)關係學派立意於人的存在人的世界是由關係構建的(十一)由此他們對外在世界不會忽視這點就是Philip Cushman說關係學派是一個政治反抗的場域的原因Neil Altman曾在inner city實踐多年就是例子(十二)但這種抗爭和實踐的弔詭仍在心理治療者是否只能是中產階級只能治療中產階級如果是的話那這些都是戲論(十三)關係學派因為後來居上所以通常不願引述剛剛講的遺產這很可惜因為客體關係理論的作者對關係的黝暗知之甚深自體心理學的作者對自體的悲劇也知之甚深把這些拿掉逕說人是由關係而來顯然單薄意思是說關係學派應保留大傘廣納百川讓各路人馬進來避雨棲息爭論這符合我先前說的精神分析的五個關鍵字本我自我客體自體關係(id, ego, object, self, relationality)

Dialogue and Deconstruction: The Gadamer-Derrida Encounter (SUNY series in Contemporary Continental Philosophy) (ed. Diane P. Michelfelder, Richard E. Palmer, 1989)


Text of and reflection on the 1981 encounter between Hans-Georg Gadamer and Jacques Derrida, which featured a dialogue between hermeneutics in Germany and post-structuralism in France. (amazon) (accessible via google play)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadamer%E2%80%93Derrida_debate

i'm wondering how would Philip Cushman deal with this debate, since he advocates the interpretive turn, which is composed of (critical) hermeneutics and postmodernism (deconstruction). (2018-10-9)

To practice hermeneutics without a sharp focus on power, and critical postmodernism without a
profound recognition of the inescapable moral frame, is to practice them poorly. (Cushman, 2005a, 
pp. 402-403) (Cushman, 2012)
•Cushman, P. (2012). Why Resist? Politics, Psychoanalysis, and the Interpretive Turn. DIVISION/Rev., 4:11-13

•Cushman, P. (2005a). Between arrogance and a dead-end: Gadamer and the Heiddeger-Foucault controversy. Contemporary Psychoanalysis, 41, 399-417.

Monday, October 8, 2018

明镜编辑部 | 王军涛 陈小平:分歧、冲突与开战:悬崖边上的中美关系

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz_-x_PdMvM

平论Live | 国际刑警组织主席孟宏伟被失踪 爆炸当量会不会超过王立军?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-xhYbStrDM

没想到他也能成为中国经济和人民币贬值的杀手锏。。撬动美债收益率击破3%,造就中国的通货膨胀

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUbLYp-Gf2Q

killer elite (2011)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq8jDUQzEag

山东平度,中国共产党屠刀已备好,准备屠杀老兵了!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvIPdRxB2f8

受貿易戰及加息夾擊 港商大陸工廠陸續倒閉

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eiccy5p3YWo

Relational Psychoanalysis as Political Resistance (Philip Cushman 2015) (2018-10-8)

http://www.wawhite.org/uploads/Journals/CP00107530.2015.1056076.pdf

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1aqsgUYJtL7KNG2kwp8n_K8Bf2A3LvVaJ?usp=sharing

上海居民自述:卖不掉,二手房市场出现了“有价无市”的奇特景象

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha-ENT_m5UA

马云:为什么说传统制造业的痛苦一定会来?远超大家想象

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uk6MN8aX30

The Trump administration just escalated its high-stakes competition with China (Fred Kempe, CNBC, 2018-10-6)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/trump-administration-makes-its-most-aggressive-moves-against-china-yet.html

對中共全面出擊? 川普一連四個動作引關注

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-upSJldJY0

http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/18/10/6/n10765620.htm

中美貿易戰恐拉長 中共最擔心的事料會發生

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK0UhV58J7U

中国“世界工厂”的最终宿命

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5XLi8GQPPQ

红色超级富豪们早已掏空了的中国,只剩一地鸡毛和韭菜

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DCZ1PSlUJ8

风暴降至!革命已是各界的共同选择!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F22xEYHM1_w

山东平度中国共产党武装部队与老兵对峙

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao6qVhIX_BA

山东平度,中国共产党屠刀已备好,准备屠杀老兵了!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvIPdRxB2f8

就在剛剛!上萬山東老兵大暴動!美媒揭露習近平正在準備三戰!14億國人嘩然!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1IHDMVmk3I

山东老兵冲突伤者未获及时救治,军队忙于拦截增援老兵

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAJL6Fb3gcc

房价一旦全面暴跌5类中国人立马遭殃

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp1De-k6WZE

http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/jcgc/2018-10-08/doc-ihkvrhps9960447.shtml

据媒体报道,任志强近来在公开场合表示,房价暴跌并没有好处,如果房价真的暴跌了,有五类人也会跟着遭殃。   
一,  辛辛苦苦供房贷的人们。这些人在房价高时花费毕生积蓄贷款买到房子,一旦房价暴跌,他们的血汗钱也就白白蒸发了。同时,面对高昂的房贷,他们是继续还贷还是弃房断供,无论他们怎么选都是错误的决定。    
二,  地产开发商。因为开发商都是高价拿地,卖完了房子才能赚到钱,而且,开发商一般都背负着巨额债务,对资金链本就不宽裕的开发商来讲,若房价暴跌不仅收入骤减,甚至能让他们直接破产。
三,  还没买房子的人们。若房价暴跌,还没买房的人将会陷入两难,房价还会不会降?什么时候出手才是好时机等等。这些未知因素会困扰这些人,让他们陷入买房遥遥无期的窘境。   
四,  银行可能会降薪或裁员。若房价暴跌,一些人还不上贷款将形成大量的银行坏帐。没房的人也不会再申请房贷了。因此银行前期可能会降薪裁员,后期也就只能宣布倒闭。    
五,  普通老百姓。房地产行业作为当局的支柱产业,一旦出现巨大震荡,势必会冲击各行各业,如此一来,普通老百姓的生活也将变得十分困难,这是人们无法承担的后果。

山东平度老兵维权被架有高射机枪的裝甲车清场

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qtgvaXL9a8

忍无可忍,无需再忍-直击山东平度退伍老兵维权现场11: 鼓舞士气,突出重围,寻求尊严,赢得喝彩

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtAic5Ju7tY

中南海大轉彎?港媒:突然傳出習中央求和 邀川普訪京

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLl8FPu6u6U

資產泡沫即將湮滅!轉折全面到來!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJ5F5MAp7DM

http://www.aboluowang.com/2018/1006/1185070.html

孟宏伟终于有下落了:北京如不及时动手, 他或成为第二个王立军

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xoCOaFVWag

告诉你真相,央行10月7日降准放水不止12000亿,货币派生有几何??这样持续放水,资产如何不被稀释呢是问号?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcjJT9YSt1I

中共太恐怖!美企巨頭也頂不住了 美國科技製造業迴流美國

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OovgbEjs9V0

重磅!中共再大放水1.2萬億 人民幣大眨值 金融市場異常嚴峻

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AuC1on7l7s

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Parker (2013)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbAeJbGxnJY

love this one, he was an angel

山东维权老兵在平度医院集结,准备继续再战!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSiS-T_KcJs

万科恒大率先降房价,被打砸闹事的却是碧桂园

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StL1hKUUO3U

Alan Roland

http://www.alanroland.com/

中美必有一战吗?(魏京生 2018-10-4)

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10042018154748.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBUcCjXYLpc

Mission Impossible: Fallout (2018-7-12)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fUZJNGdTjE

先說一個最可怕的消息∼中國「十一」假期結束,這些大事將影響市場

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBwer1nN_u4

CSAC revisited

http://zhanlve.org/

彭斯演讲对中国出击,夏业良分析内幕和影响

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZ0Xl5AKwtY


推薦

突发事件:山东上千老兵维权与警冲突 灭火器还击催泪弹

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsRr6KycxO0

2018-12-1


歸鄉的局外人
人的復位
和人的無法復位
復位包括自戀的復位
這時我們想起寇赫特
這時我們想起寇赫特未竟的夢
這時我們回到歷史
發現歷史如此不堪
這時我們重讀Victor Serge和Max Bloch
才知道Vagabond Witness是唯一的命運
才知道局外人無鄉可歸不須歸鄉
才知道局外人只有反抗
死在無家可歸的歷史的荒原

懸戰 (2015)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyMRJ_oj1qM

人的復位

復位就是回到屬於他的位置
有點像套上一雙合腳的舊鞋
你問復位有幾難有幾重要
我說你要先回答人是甚麼
復位的人才是人
沒有復位的人不是人
你說那是甚麼
我說是被活摘器官的器官
是被交易算計的籌碼
是一個符號比如集中營囚犯手臂上的刺青
是一個工具比如富士康的血汗工人
是一隻被踐踏的蟲
是被天網監控的沒有自由的犯人
是自以為是的與天鬥與地鬥
當然還有與人鬥聽說這比上述兩個鬥更有趣
你說你把人說得太不堪昨天我剛去巴黎買幾十個LV包我是他媽的人
我說你的確是人在你還沒有被抽層層剝皮重稅之前


铁幕徐徐降下,习近平带领中国人走上苏联老路

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y2n1M6GbnM

彭斯演说引发舆论战,胡锡进公开叫板王沪宁,有意取而代之?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJtyAxBvi7Y

新华社:未来15年中国预计将进口24万亿美元商品

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOSLwriJE8g

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2018-10-06/doc-ihkvrhps7505734.shtml

now, tell me, this is NOT propaganda

陶傑:彭斯宣言 算錯了這筆帳 遺留了很重要的部份

http://www.aboluowang.com/2018/1007/1185422.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRcwUGQLF5M

China 1945: Mao's Revolution and America's Fateful Choice (Richard Bernstein, 2014)


A riveting account of the watershed moment in America’s dealings with China that forever altered the course of East-West relations

As 1945 opened, America was on surprisingly congenial terms with China’s Communist rebels—their soldiers treated their American counterparts as heroes, rescuing airmen shot down over enemy territory. Chinese leaders talked of a future in which American money and technology would help lift China out of poverty. Mao Zedong himself held friendly meetings with U.S. emissaries, vowing to them his intention of establishing an American-style democracy in China. 

By year’s end, however, cordiality had been replaced by chilly hostility and distrust. Chinese Communist soldiers were setting ambushes for American marines in north China; Communist newspapers were portraying the United States as an implacable imperialist enemy; civil war in China was erupting. The pattern was set for a quarter century of almost total Sino-American mistrust, with the devastating wars in Korea and Vietnam among the consequences. 

Richard Bernstein here tells the incredible story of that year’s sea change, brilliantly analyzing its many components, from ferocious infighting among U.S. diplomats, military leaders, and opinion makers to the complex relations between Mao and his patron, Stalin. 

On the American side, we meet experienced “China hands” John Paton Davies and John Stewart Service, whose efforts at negotiation made them prey to accusations of Communist sympathy; FDR’s special ambassador Patrick J. Hurley, a decorated general and self-proclaimed cowboy; and Time journalist, Henry Luce, whose editorials helped turn the tide of American public opinion. On the Chinese side, Bernstein reveals the ascendant Mao and his intractable counterpart, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek; and the indispensable Zhou Enlai.
           
A tour de force of narrative history, China 1945 examines the first episode in which American power and good intentions came face-to-face with a powerful Asian revolutionary movement, and challenges familiar assumptions about the origins of modern Sino-American relations. (amazon) (kindle 2015-2-17)

Answering The Old Question: Who Lost China?

https://www.npr.org/2014/11/08/362342377/answering-the-old-question-who-lost-china

The Men Who Lost China (documentary film, Mitch Anderson, 2013)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Men_Who_Lost_China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUmOsYin_x8

Loss of China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_of_China

now, this, is not a political discourse for me, it is my father's history, and mine too 


The Man Who Lost China (NYT, 1976-10-24)

https://www.nytimes.com/1976/10/24/archives/the-man-who-lost-china.html

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/068414686X/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_taft_p1_i1

各方解讀彭斯講話美對華政策巨變

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWHJRkm7HvY

Seasick Steve - Can U Cook? (Official Video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHg-Uc6yEzU

深度:红色超级富豪掏空中国

https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2018/10/07/872369.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoIgyVLNDxQ

Formosa Betrayed (Full Movie) Political Thriller 1983 Taiwan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKUqh5xNl8s

川普冻结江泽民家族美国资产 前美国总统顾问班农:红色权贵通过一切渠道将资金转移出国 外逃资金每年高达2兆人民币

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRWLFgDGXm8

enigma

https://www.enigma.com/public-data

Machine Learning In Practice: How Does Amazon's Alexa Really Work? (Bernard Marr, Forbes, 2018-10-5)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/10/05/how-does-amazons-alexa-really-work/#464aebd61937

Big Data - Too Many Answers Not Enough Questions (Bernard Marr & Co.)

https://www.bernardmarr.com/default.asp?contentID=957

What Is Deep Learning AI? A Simple Guide With 8 Practical Examples (Bernard Marr, Forbes, 2018-10-1)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/10/01/what-is-deep-learning-ai-a-simple-guide-with-8-practical-examples/#40a5aa5f8d4b

【書齋夜話】104-附錄:美國副總統彭斯10月4日哈德遜研究所演講全文(中文字幕)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scdm7XzJO-M

陰婚之搭錯車 (Corpse In The Car 2016)

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%98%B4%E5%A9%9A%E4%B9%8B%E6%90%AD%E9%94%99%E8%BD%A6

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnBvEC68yvk

孟宏伟被抓的原因超乎想象

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtkLHrnd8_4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0-6N0ryYyw

德国企业成批退出中国

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQAlYkQlcJ4

我在必不成功

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inZ6ox19vg0

something about suicide (2018-10-6)

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1C-_vTIX5wG_V-rghDlW5tSFnfA12-vX2?usp=sharing

Leonard Cohen - You Want It Darker (Solomun Remix) (Audio)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCXaPzEHPXY

wonderful for funeral, there is, no way, to lie still, while listening to this one

中国传密召高官子女回国恐再遭抵制

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoXNkH_UXWM

Leonard Cohen on Finding His Voice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4PfeqNjXrc

川普搁置贸易战,改打政治战,这次目标瞄准习近平了

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nfi6E18tbFE

刚曝出的猛料!川普下令首先冻结江泽民家族美国5000亿资产 立法已完成 中共高官们将被川普金融战一剑封喉而倾家荡产 届时国人可放鞭炮庆祝

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRBAVu4P3YM

4:58 AM

作文與讀覽   兩不能廢   兩不可廢   然真功夫實有在作文讀覽之外者  
這是十力語要的第一句話 (答張季同)

幾天下來  沒有辦法往下看第二句話  



4:39 AM


其實歸根究柢
惡意是沒有必要的
善意也是沒有必要的

當然我們從來都不能歸根究柢
因為為事物命名形成概念構建系統
我們永遠急著做這些家務事

意思是說根柢不在家裡
或在家歸究不了根柢
雖然井井有條窗明几淨纖塵不染

這時你懷念起Sebald和他珍愛的
像大雪一般的灰塵他是這麼說的
走過去坐下來好像雪中小徑

4:15 AM


不能不做點甚麼 不管結果如何   就是所作已辦  不受後有


意思是說 吃完飯 要洗碗  洗了很多年 不要指望得到洗碗獎 

The psychology of suicidal behaviour (The Lancet Psychiatry, 2014)

O’Connor, R. C., & Nock, M. K. (2014). The psychology of suicidal behaviour. The Lancet Psychiatry, 1, 73–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(14)70222-6

以下說明 暗夜行路 歸鄉猶遙
我們以為知道 我們在做甚麼
但其實我們不知道 做了會有甚麼差別
恐怕我們唯一知道的是 不能不做點甚麼 不管結果如何


Psychological treatment

Most people struggling with suicidal thoughts and behaviours (roughly 60%) do not receive treatment.148 The main reasons for not seeking help are low perceived need and the desire to handle the problem personally.148 

Future research is needed to develop effective ways to connect people with suicidal thoughts and behaviours with effective treatments. 

Unfortunately, few well-established evidence-based treatments for suicidal behaviour are available, such as prevention pro grammes,149 pharmacological interventions,150 and psycho logical treatments.151

Treatments targeting depression have not been shown to reduce suicidal thoughts or behaviours.152 

Some evidence suggests that specific forms of cognitive and behavioural therapy that target suicidal thoughts and behaviours directly can decrease the risk of suicide reattempt among people who have made a previous attempt. 

For example, clinical trials testing dialectical behaviour therapy (in patients with borderline personality disorder)153 and cognitive therapy (in recent suicide attempters)154 have lent support to the effectiveness of these treatments to reduce the rate of suicide reattempt compared with other interventions. 

However, few replications have been done by independent research groups, and studies have yet to establish interventions that prevent people at risk from making an initial suicide attempt. 

Findings from a metaanalysis155 of cognitive behaviour therapies for suicidal behaviour showed a statistically significant effect of cognitive behavioural therapy to reduce the rate of suicide attempt; however, the investigators noted a publication bias in this topic, with a funnel plot of published studies centring close to zero, smaller studies reporting more positive effect sizes, and no published study findings showing negative effects for any intervention.

Several new interventions also offer promise. 

The collaborative assessment and management of suicidality is a clinical intervention designed to enhance the therapeutic alliance and decrease the risk of suicidal behaviour.156 

Safety-planning interventions, which include the identification of warning signs, coping strategies, and sources of support in addition to restriction of access to lethal means, are also receiving welcome attention.157 

Treatment based on mentalisation has shown some promise to reduce self-harm in adolescents.158 

The fact that most suicidal people do not receive treatment, and that little evidence is available for the effectiveness of the interventions received by those who do, emphasises the tremendous importance of future work to develop psychological treatments for people at risk of suicidal behaviour. 

The utility of the internet and smartphones in treatment delivery also requires close examination.

Saturday, October 6, 2018

微信疯传:中美冷战爆发了你们准备好了?

http://cn.rfi.fr/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20181006-%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%96%AF%E4%BC%A0%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%86%B7%E6%88%98%E7%88%86%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%86%E4%BD%A0%E4%BB%AC%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E5%A5%BD%E4%BA%86

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz3DzH_-9ZY

12 Angry Men (1957)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_Angry_Men_(1957_film)

台媒曝川普将对江泽民动手 江家5000亿美元或被冻结

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3MPLZ6LBw8

41 (2012)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5mnqxwErTk

彭斯讲话促使中国媒体出现“分歧”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RJNwusSbxQ

中共升级封锁彭斯演讲 大陆网民全力转发

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaRKjf3E8Wg

彭斯演講大陸反響強烈 陸學者:必將影響中共高層

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkmY0TIfAYs

中共 ≠ 中國

中共黨員 ≠ 中國人


从官方数据看民企和国企谁更挣钱

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ose-ASNBAFM

http://www.aboluowang.com/2018/1005/1184571.html

老牛与嫩草 (Old Cow vs Tender Grass 2010)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA1FrukdpTM

美國出重拳 全面揭中共陰謀 貿易戰將升級

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF8QBlwlb_Q

港媒:孟宏伟刚下飞机就被纪检带走

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOWEvDmyNAA

彭斯重磅演讲 美对中政策全面转向?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cV_l8e8ucA

【書齋夜話】104:美國副總統宣誓外交政策,對中共徹底失去耐心

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-GHt_PX3KI

https://kellychang2713.blogspot.com/search?q=pence

造反有理(毛)

解放全人類(習)

古城69号院 (2016)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQoDpeYQ4xs

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%8F%A4%E5%9F%8E69%E5%8F%B7%E9%99%A2

彭斯發表美國衛國戰爭宣言 川普一系列大招源源不斷 七大罪把中共和中國分開

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oxmGSAqGVc

联想美洲收入占33% 中共间谍晶片指控打击深远

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Hp3I4uOwA

召回留美高官子女?中共官员也用脚投票

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QbVi3N1JJk

China's Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era (2018-10-2)

http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/1651760/chinas-strategic-support-force-a-force-for-a-new-era/

http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/china-perspectives_13.pdf

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2000/RR2058/RAND_RR2058.pdf

311部隊和三戰

http://www.aboluowang.com/2018/1006/1185047.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sj3TfbODWSo

Pink Floyd - Shine On You Crazy Diamond I-IX

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOXTdFbjtSg

KOKOROKO - ABUSEY JUNCTION // WE OUT HERE



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSv04ylc6To

与美国矛盾激化,中国挖角千人计画转地下化

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjvN-Z3FC4U

大陆网友疯传彭斯演讲中共急封杀 内部文件曝千人计划如招募特工 与中共政权离心离德 中共密召高官子女回国恐遭抵制

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGEnXKaHrxo

财经全观察|全军:彭斯讲话道出中美冲突本源,中国不会有铁幕只会有火山(20181005 第121期)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=majeittkykQ

古代最有理想的"黑幫”-墨家,為何秦朝統一後,就神秘消失了

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qey_x1xgwI&t=242s

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6#%E8%91%97%E5%90%8D%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6%E8%91%97%E4%BD%9C

戰國以後,墨家漸見衰落,墨家一支轉化為秦漢社會的游俠

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BF%A0%E5%AE%A2

https://ctext.org/mohism/zh

TQR

https://tqr.nova.edu/composing-and-appraising-qualitative-research-reports-collected-web-resources-articles-chapters-and-books/

Axios China (Bill Bishop 2018-10-6)

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-china

半个中国 - 铜陵

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnOaFQNel6I

專訪宋永毅談廣西文革大屠殺之二 你不了解的廣西文革:武裝剿「匪」殺人為樂 (2017-7-17)

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/17/7/12/n9381537.htm


1979年至1981年間,廣西因要求解決文革的冤假錯案而上訪的人數是全國最多的,達十幾萬人。時任改革派的領導人胡耀邦決定派出工作組到廣西調查。於是從1981年到1983年,有近十萬的幹部在從事這一調查,前提是中央把廣西省省委改組,並撤換了舊的官員。因為被號稱『廣西王』的該自治區第一書記韋國清得到軍隊的支持。
但是經過五年調查,匯集成一部十八冊、760萬字的檔案——《廣西文革檔案資料》卻被中共掩蓋起來,還偽造了很多資料;在廣西公開出版的縣誌裡面,看不到該資料反饋出來的真相。
宋永毅說:「它堪稱是一部最詳實、最完整的、一個省的、十年浩劫的史料長卷,並且它具有官方聲稱的、無可置疑的權威性。但是都是共產黨的幹部、軍隊做的那些禽獸不如的事情,為了不負責任,它要掩蓋歷史真相。」

廣西機密檔案續編揭露文革反人類罪行 (2017-6-8)

http://trad.cn.rfi.fr/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/20170806-%E5%BB%A3%E8%A5%BF%E6%A9%9F%E5%AF%86%E6%AA%94%E6%A1%88%E7%BA%8C%E7%B7%A8%E6%8F%AD%E9%9C%B2%E6%96%87%E9%9D%A9%E5%8F%8D%E4%BA%BA%E9%A1%9E%E7%BD%AA%E8%A1%8C

"Excuse me captain, can you fly?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzbCBfi5-Bw

唐浩:全方位追击中共 川普九大战术布阵 (2018-9-22/23)

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/18/9/22/n10732656.htm

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/18/9/22/n10732688.htm

Integrative psychodynamic model for understanding and assessing the suicidal patient (2018)

The Suicide and Self-Destructive Behaviors Study Group. (2018). Integrative psychodynamic model for understanding and assessing the suicidal patient. Psychoanalytic Psychology, 35(4), 424-432.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pap0000171


Abstract



Assessing and treating suicidal patients is a high-risk area of practice requiring psychoanalytic psychotherapists to be knowledgeable about risk and protective factors for suicide, and competent at assessing, formulating and treating this group of patients. The therapist must have a method of using research data and clinical judgment to understand the suicidal process, which often involves life span developmental vulnerabilities (diathesis) combined with more acute life stressors (stress). Interpersonal, cognitive, social, neurobiological, genetic, and psychodynamic factors may all contribute to suicidal states of mind. Integrating disparate sources of knowledge to develop a psychodynamic formulation is a core strength of psychoanalytic practice, which aims to understand the meaning of symptoms from unconscious, preconscious, and conscious aspects of the individual in a developmental and interpersonal context. Our study group has reviewed contemporary psychological theories of suicide and developed an integrative psychoanalytic tool for assessing and formulating the dynamics of the suicidal process at the level of the individual. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved)

http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2018-13555-001

A Summing Up (Charles Gelso, 2018)


1.         The therapeutic relationship is complex and multidimensional, and it includes the contributions of both the therapist and the patient.
2.         All therapeutic relationships may be seen as consisting of three interlocking components: a real relationship, a working alliance, and a transference–countertransference configuration.
3.         Techniques and the relationship go hand in hand, each affecting the other and at times being part of the other.
4.         The preservation and strengthening of the working alliance should take center stage from the very beginning of treatment.
5.         What may be termed a real or personal relationship exists from the first moment of contact between therapists and patients and must be attended to by therapists if treatment is to have its maximal impact.
6.         Empathy, caring, and affirmation are key elements of successful treatments of all theoretical persuasions.
7.         Within the context of empathy, caring, and affirmation, therapy is most successful when the therapist maintains a stance of benevolent neutrality.
8.         Transference exists in all relationships and may be for better or worse, depending on its nature and intensity, as well as how the therapist responds to it.
9.         Countertransference can be for better or worse, depending upon how the therapist manages it.
10.     Intense therapist affects are present in some therapeutic relationships and must be acknowledged and understood if they are to help rather than hinder treatment.
11.     There is more


Chap 7: Good Therapist, Good Relationship A Summing Up

Gelso, Charles J.. The Therapeutic Relationship in Psychotherapy Practice: An Integrative Perspective (pp. 140-154). Taylor and Francis. Kindle edition.

Frente Bolivarista Vol​ ​4 - Nômades 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=We1a2_mtupg

茶餐廳


一無所有的人
沒有見過那有名的
十三萬億美金

當然也沒有見過
那被貪汙出境的五萬億美金 

這是數學題五萬億美金
除以一百八十萬人

每個人可以分到多少

十三減五等於八所以
還有八萬億美金藏在中國境內某人家裡

黃秋生杜汶澤鄭中基正在茶餐廳
討論怎麼打土豪分那八萬億美金

孔琳琳練過降龍十八掌熱愛民主自由和港人十一上街遊行抗拒中共危城統治 (2018-10-2)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfIsyVFOnNE

孟宏伟失踪

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfUG8DCwO2c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx4wfnQ9tGQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCrQny4R9IQ

高明的造谣术

http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2018/1005/c1002-30325827.html

習近平亮劍亮早了 美國蘇醒了 彭斯演講具有分水嶺的意義

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQlB7SvlGIw

海口福元宮

這是移動的極限
僅存四年南崁繞境

面對海量信息的是誰
被海量信息無情解構後的是誰

昨晚我說必須先有第一個誰
他的唯一希望是找到足夠
擋得住海嘯的象徵

今早我想第一個誰是奢望了
他必須在面對大海的過程中倖存
才能有第一個誰

意思是說第一是倖存
第二是倖存中的倖存
兩個倖存都不過是碎片

我知道你聽不懂我在說甚麼

去福元宮途中經過
暗夜中燈火詭異的財神廟
我說碧雲禪寺供的是毛澤東
財神廟供的想必是高進罷

我說馬克思列寧史達林毛澤東習近平
要的是你的一切
包括你那無用的靈魂

你知道雙手合十
唱國歌升五星旗的和尚們
吃的是甚麼早餐
念的是甚麼經嗎

重磅 歐洲議會通過議案 促中共關閉新疆「集中營」

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGkomppQSKk

彭斯发表划时代“伐共”演说,决定性反击时刻来临!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_3-p00MEU8

赤線地帶 , Street Of Shame , 1956

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNClfL0k_1s

中国式巨婴心态,到底有多可怕?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kNrBfCeUmo

限薪令〝追杀〞赵薇王菲 传逾2百大腕被追款

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_owXusnd2M

疫苗受害家长北京王府井募款被带走

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXP5Oz4LoAQ

孔琳琳和王毅號召百人联署要求无罪释放高智晟律师

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Y4tUgOAJ8

平论Live | 美国副总统正式对中国下战书,谁来救中国?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVXWnLBL0nE

Friday, October 5, 2018

【中国热评】美国对华战略有什么变化? 企业要如何民主管理?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3erOTP9YDU0

夏业良:自力更生打不赢中美贸易战 现代企业制度容不下党的领导

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtQKXNYBD2U

中共芯片窃取计划已暴露,特朗普彭斯宣告对中共全方位开火,一带一路已经被美国新策咯所封堵,中共的债务外交

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fPtdA0PsBQ

彭斯骂中国太狠太地道,谁在背后指点?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIp8JsAP0zU

3 Days (2015)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVdfDpgcKnA

习近平的"四个自信"走向破产 ...中国经济涌现诸多不祥之兆

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYflJrc5A04

中国经济已经无力自救,人们认为有大事要发生(《明镜推荐》2018年10月4日)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uokXWrp4_Zk


推薦

明镜焦点 | 铅笔尖大小的间谍微芯片,中国遥控美国军事信息遭截获

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZZi6pZ1Xk8

热贴:习近平走到这一步,已经是骑虎难下

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fEdilWiW8I

https://www.backchina.com/news/2018/10/05/586376.html

明星私企被“打土豪”大陸狂刮姓“黨”風?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygRa5Qwanjc

如果人民幣貶值 美元1:10人民幣 會出現什麼樣的問題?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoKW5XCLtOs

https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20180923A12OKG00

彭博:蘋果、Amazon等近30家美企伺服器遭植入中國惡意晶片竊密

https://www.ithome.com.tw/news/126286

https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%A1%86%E7%B1%B3%E7%B2%92%E8%88%AC%E5%BE%AE%E5%B0%8F%E7%9A%84%E6%83%A1%E6%84%8F%E6%99%B6%E7%89%87-%E6%88%90%E7%82%BA%E5%A3%93%E5%9E%AE%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%AD%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%80%E5%BE%8C%E7%A8%BB%E8%8D%89-043501223.html

美媒:蘋果和亞馬遜被中共黑客植入間諜芯片|彭博曝中共植入间谍芯片监控苹果亚马逊 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9wXZvkLyok

习近平密令高官子女速回国 背后牵引大秘密?高干子弟要抗命?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFr8ArrJAT8

神曲

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NytmhAFSdLM

見證絕望無盡

才能終睹希望

燕郊房價腰斬 大陸資產泡沫即將湮滅?二手房均價破兩萬 中介十室九空 燕郊樓市跌回2015年

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGXzyCRYQaA

Bearing Witness to the Witness: A Psychoanalytic Perspective on Four Modes of Traumatic Testimony (Dana Amir 2018-9-10)

Bearing Witness to the Witness examines the different methods of testimony given by trauma victims and the ways in which these can enrich or undermine the ability of the reader to witness them. Years of listening to both direct and indirect testimonies on trauma has lead Dana Amir to identify four modes of witnessing trauma: the "metaphoric mode", the "metonymic mode," the "excessive mode" and the "Muselmann mode." In doing so, the author demonstrates the importance of testimony in understanding the nature of trauma, and therefore how to respond to trauma more adequately in a clinical psychoanalytic setting.
To follow these four modes of interaction with the traumatic memory, the various chapters of the book present a close reading of three genres of traumatic witnessing: literary accounts by Holocaust survivors, memoirs (located between autobiographic recollection and fiction) and "raw" testimonies taken from Holocaust survivors. Since every traumatic testimonial narrative contains a combination of all four modes with various shifts between them, it is of crucial importance to identify the singular combination of modes that characterizes each traumatic narrative, focusing on the specific areas within which a shift occurs from one mode to another. Such a focus is extremely important, as illustrated and analyzed throughout this book, to the rehabilitation of the psychic metabolic system which conditions the digestion of traumatic materials, allowing a metaphoric working through of traumatic zones that were so far only accessible to repetition and evacuation.
Bearing Witness to the Witness will appeal to trauma researchers of all research areas, including psychologists, psychoanalysts, literary scholars as well as philosophers of language and philosophers of the mind. The book will also be of interest and relevance to clinical psychologists, psychoanalytic candidates and graduate students in literary theory and criticism. (amazon) 

Tolerating Strangers in Intolerant Times: Psychoanalytic Political and Philosophical Perspectives (Roger Kennedy 2018-11-2)

In this interdisciplinary and wide-ranging study, Roger Kennedy looks at the roots of tolerance and intolerance as well as the role of the stranger and strangeness in provoking basic fears about our identity. He argues that a fear of a loss of attachment to one’s home might account for many prejudiced and intolerant attitudes to refugees and migrants; that basic fears about being displaced by so-called ‘strangers’ from our precious and precarious sense of a psychic home can tear communities apart, as well as lead to discrimination against those who appear to be different.
Present day intolerance includes fears about the ‘hordes’ of immigrants confused with realistic fears about terrorist attacks, populist fears about loss of cultural integrity and with it a sense of powerlessness, and fearful debates about such basics as truth, including the so-called ‘post truth’ issue. Such fears, as explored in the book, mirror old arguments going back centuries to the early enlightenment thinkers and even before, when the parameters of discussion about tolerance were mainly around religious tolerance. There is urgency about addressing these kinds of issue once more at a time when the ‘ground rules’ of what makes for a civilized society seem to be under threat. Kennedy argues that society needs a ‘tolerance process’, in which critical thinking and respectful judgment can take place in an atmosphere of debate and reasonably open communication, when issues around what can and cannot be tolerated about different beliefs, practices and attitudes in people in our own and other cultures, are examined and debated.

Tolerating Strangers in Intolerant Times, with the help of psychoanalytic, literary, social and political thinking, looks at what such a tolerance process could look like in a world increasingly prone to intolerance and prejudice. It will appeal to psychoanalysts as well as scholars of politics and philosophy. (amazon)