Wednesday, December 14, 2022

China braces for COVID wave (Axis China, 2022-12-13) (2022-12-14)

Chinese residents and the country's medical system are bracing for a wave of COVID infections.

Why it matters: The sudden unwinding of stringent pandemic measures, if not handled carefully, could strain the health care system and lead to a higher number of deaths from the disease than a slower relaxing of measures otherwise might.

What's happening: Chinese hospitals are already feeling a shock wave of new cases, and they're scrambling to set up new intensive care units in preparation for more infections.

  • Long lines formed outside fever clinics as people with symptoms sought treatment and COVID tests, Reuters reports.
  • Chinese experts are urging Beijing to quickly approve updated vaccines that are more effective against newer strains of the virus, per the Financial Times. Those vaccinated in China have received the Sinopharm and Sinovac jabs, which are less effective against omicron.
  • People have rushed to pharmacies to stock up on cold medicines, including traditional Chinese herbal remedies the Chinese government has heavily promoted as beneficial to treating COVID but which so far have scant scientific evidence to support their efficacy.
  • Feng Zijian, who advises China's COVID task force, said last week that COVID could infect up to 840 million people, per the New York Times.
Background: Chinese authorities began relaxing pandemic restrictions after historic protests rocked cities around the country two weeks ago, including ending mass quarantines and lockdowns in most outbreaks.
  • Since then, the central government and local authorities have continued to dismantle elements of the extensive contact tracing and testing system that health authorities implemented effectively for almost three years.
  • Chinese authorities also announced they would no longer use the nationwide location tracking app that collected cellphone data on the travel history of Chinese residents to determine who had entered a COVID outbreak zone.
What they're saying: "These measures will very likely lead to a messy and hasty transition process where local governments ditch all the zero-COVID measures without investing seriously in preparing for the transition," Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Nature magazine.

Chinese health officials have also suddenly shifted how they characterize the severity of COVID.

  • Last week, China's top medical advisor Zhong Nanshan compared COVID's death rate to the flu, stating the rate was about 0.1%, though scientists are still debating how lethal the disease is.
Our thought bubble: Though much of the rest of the world is now living normally with COVID, it may take time to persuade many Chinese people they no longer need to be seriously concerned about an illness they have sacrificed so much to avoid — especially if hospitals begin filling up and death counts rise.