https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_J._Toynbee#Challenge_and_response
Challenge and response
With the civilisations as units identified, he presented the history of each in terms of challenge-and-response, a process he proposed as a scientific law of history. Civilizations arose in response to some set of extreme challenges, when "creative minorities" devised new solutions that reoriented their entire society. Challenges and responses were physical, as when the Sumerians exploited the intractable swamps of southern Iraq by organising the Neolithic inhabitants into a society capable of carrying out large-scale irrigation projects; or social, as when the Catholic Church resolved the chaos of post-Roman Europe by enrolling the new Germanic kingdoms in a single religious community. When civilisations responded to challenges, they grew; but they disintegrated when their leaders stopped responding creatively, sinking into nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. According to an Editor's Note in an edition of Toynbee's A Study of History, Toynbee believed that societies always die from suicide or murder rather than natural causes; and nearly always the former.[73] He sees the growth and decline of civilizations as a spiritual process, writing that "Man achieves civilization, not as a result of superior biological endowment or geographical environment, but as a response to a challenge in a situation of special difficulty which rouses him to make a hitherto unprecedented effort."[74][75]
Toynbee and Jung: the historian and analytical psychology--a brief comment
A Jungian psychohistory: A. J. Toynbee's use of analytical psychology in his theory of civilizations (2012)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/19409052.2012.754364
