Frank Dikötter, a prominent historian of modern China (especially known for The Tragedy of Liberation, Mao’s Great Famine, and The Cultural Revolution), has developed a deeply critical view of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly under Xi Jinping’s rule.
Here’s a summary of his perspective on China’s future under the CCP, especially Xi’s authoritarian consolidation:
🔒 1.
Reversion to Totalitarian Roots
Dikötter argues that under Xi, the CCP is not reforming or modernizing, but rather tightening its grip, returning to its totalitarian instincts — surveillance, ideological control, suppression of dissent.
He often says that while China may look “capitalist” on the surface, the Party’s Leninist core remains intact, and under Xi, that core has been revitalized, not dismantled.
📉 2.
Bleak Economic and Political Future
In his 2022 book China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, Dikötter makes a stark assessment:
“China is no longer rising. It is declining.”
Despite the illusion of strength, he sees signs of economic stagnation, growing internal repression, and a closed-off political environment that discourages innovation and openness. He critiques the state-driven, opaque economic system and the overreliance on propaganda to sustain legitimacy.
In his view, the Party’s obsession with control will ultimately backfire — choking off the very dynamism China needs to thrive.
🛑 3.
Xi’s Rule Is Risk-Prone and Unsustainable
Dikötter sees Xi Jinping as a leader who has amassed too much power, echoing Mao Zedong’s cult-like centralization. He argues that:
- Xi has created an atmosphere of fear even among elites,
- He’s removed mechanisms of internal correction (like term limits and factional balance),
- This makes the system brittle and prone to miscalculation.
In his words, “Xi Jinping is not a modernizer; he’s a control freak.”
🔁 4.
History Repeating Itself — But Without Mao’s “Revolutionary” Energy
Dikötter often draws parallels between Maoist China and Xi’s China, but notes a difference:
- Mao’s regime was marked by ideological fervor and mass mobilization,
- Xi’s regime is marked by apathy, surveillance, and fear.
He suggests that the CCP under Xi may lose the “hearts and minds” of the people, as it relies more on coercion than persuasion or hope.
🧨 5.
Collapse? Not Inevitable — But Cracks Are Spreading
Dikötter doesn’t predict a sudden collapse, but he strongly implies that:
- The regime is losing flexibility,
- Internal contradictions are mounting (aging population, debt, censorship, regional tensions),
- Its international image is deteriorating, especially post-COVID.
In interviews, he’s said:
“The party is not as strong as it looks. Behind the façade lies fragility.”
🔚 Summary:
Frank Dikötter sees Xi’s CCP as a regime in decline, clinging to power through fear, repression, and control, while losing the economic and moral legitimacy it once claimed. He does not believe in the “China model” as sustainable or replicable. For him, the future of China under the CCP — especially under Xi — looks more like a return to a haunted past, rather than a step into the future.
If you’d like, I can offer quotes from China After Mao or summarize how Dikötter’s view contrasts with other China watchers like Bill Bishop, Elizabeth Economy, or Orville Schell.
